Long Covid’ for Australia and New Zealand...

He said IELTS language testing volumes had recovered to pre-pandemic levels in December. “Time will tell if a global catchup is underway [but] there definitely has been a sharp rebound.”

New data collected by IDP Connect underline the popularity of Canada, which was first-choice study destination for 39 per cent of the 3,650 would-be students surveyed, mostly from South Asia and the Philippines. Sixty-nine per cent named Canada among the countries they were considering.

Australia was top choice for 16 per cent of respondents, and under consideration by less than half. New Zealand was being considered by about one-quarter and was first-choice destination for just 4 per cent.

Mr Chew said the two countries faced extended downturns for five reasons. The first was a reduction in capacity, as institutions closed or reduced their offerings to international students. The second was a “direct transfer of capability” as practitioners fled north. “Each time…academic or professional staff have to leave, there is a Canadian or UK university ready to pick up their expertise, know-how, relationships and networks offshore.”

Another driver was the erosion of “permanent advantages” such as Australiafocused advisers at education agencies. “Those counsellors are being retrained to direct students towards the northern hemisphere, where there are viable options at the moment.”

A fourth factor involved lost word-ofmouth recommendations. “When family members are studying elsewhere...we’re missing out on siblings and cousins. The same sort of path dependency effects come into play when families are purchasing property or taking out leases.”

Lastly, antipodean university rankings had largely been bankrolled by money from international students. “When that drops off…institutions elsewhere will benefit from an increase in fee revenue. We can expect a gradual swapping of places in those global rankings.”