Are we going or coming?

If the state of the nation is to be judged by recent headlines, it could be described by the often-used Sri Lankan expression: ‘Can’t say whether we are going or coming’.

With the country threatened with long power cuts, the Electricity Board, a government institution, says that unless electricity tariffs are increased there will be long power cuts -- even six hours. The Public Utilities Commission says it will not permit that to happen. It is then reported that two members of that commission were threatened by thugs. And the focus of the media shifts to the attempted assault on these apparently exalted officials and not on people being kept in the dark.

Earlier the people were told there was no foreign exchange to buy fuel to feed power generators. Then reports said coal had not been ordered in time for the power generators. The Electricity Board that supplies power to the National Grid claims that billions in unpaid bills have to be realised from state institutions.

All these are state-owned institutions under cabinet ministers who are supposed to have full control over them. But the merry-go-round goes round and round, the country is bankrupt while power cuts keep getting longer and longer. Foreign countries and international lending institutions keep doling out driblets in the form of assistance to keep the Lankan economy’s nose barely a few millimetres above the water but it appears to be a long-drawn process.

When will financial assistance from the IMF, other international financial institutions, and donor countries attempting to rescue Sri Lanka arrive?

‘Coming soon’, the President, Finance Ministry officials and the Central Bank keep saying, like in the old days when Hollywood blockbusters were screened in our cinemas but the arrival of that assistance appears to be a slow and tortuous process.

It’s the same story about holding elections to municipal councils and lesser local bodies. President Ranil Wickremesinghe says there is no money to finance these elections which will cost billions of rupees. The country can’t afford it. He will not participate in the elections because his primary duty is to rescue the country from the financial debacle. He doesn’t say the debacle was created by President Gotabaya Rajapaksa who appointed him the prime minister and then Rajapaksa’s party elected him the president. But his party has submitted nomination papers for the elections -- in a coalition with the Rajapaksa party -- for which he says there is no money. This is a kind of logic that is hard to comprehend.

Instructions have gone to officials who can kick off the elections process not to supply the required finance to conduct it. Who in authority gave such orders remains a learned guessing game played by politicians and academics on latenight TV talk shows.

Opposition parties which swear with certainty that elections will not be held have submitted their nomination papers. There are petitions submitted to the Supreme Court: Some petitions pleading that court does not permit suspension of elections while others are requesting that the court prevents elections from being held. Now reports say the existence of the Elections Commission which said that holding elections is mandatory and cannot be postponed is being threatened.

Are we coming or going and in which direction? Is there anybody who is somebody governing this country or is everybody who is somebody passing the ball down the line?

Other services very much essential to the life of the community are confused and worse confounded. The distribution of fertiliser, both compost and inorganic, reports say have left the farmers in a quandary. Farmers appear on TV news, exhibit deformed paddy shoots that have taken root, and say the compost distributed to them is sub-standard or the inorganic fertiliser has come too late. The Chinese government has distributed inorganic fertiliser estimated at billions of rupees but the government is said to be short of funds to buy fuel for distribution through vehicles.

Egg manufacturers are resisting tooth and nail the import of eggs in the government’s effort at price reduction saying it will destroy this indigenous industry that had grown over the years.

The basic problem is finance -both local and foreign. Elections, it is argued, cannot be held because of inadequate local currency despite the vast amounts of printed money coming into the market.

Shortage of local finance may go on for years and will it be that even no presidential or parliamentary election can be held during that period and Wickremesinghe and his Rajapaksa government can go on ad infinitum, it is asked.

The current political and financial crises are likely to continue as long as the foreign crisis is not resolved. It has to be done through the IMF and other countries assisting Lanka such as China, India, Japan America, and other western nations.

Meanwhile, Dr. Gunadasa Amarasekera, convener of the Federations of National Organisations, in a bout of resurgent anti-neo-colonialism, has asked American Ambassador Julie Chung not to interfere in Sri Lanka’s affairs by creating an anti-China frenzy by saying that China is behind the delay in Lanka’s debtrestructuring process.

Certainly, there should be no interference in Sri Lankan affairs by any one country. But Nonagenarian Dr. Amarasekera must surely be aware that his country is right now going around the world with a begging bowl seeking assistance from sympathetic countries. The United States is a country that is playing a key role in settling the debt restructuring issue which is of vital importance to Lanka.

In an interview with the BBC, the US Ambassador said that there was a greater onus to move China because it was the biggest bilateral lender to Lanka. She had hoped China would not delay because Sri Lanka does not have the time to delay.

Maybe it could be called ‘interference’ but this could be called ‘interference’ to help this country.

Regarding the alleged attempt to mislead the Sri Lankan people and to create animosity between Sri Lanka and China, Dr. Amarasekera is of a vintage ripe enough to know of the strength of Sri Lanka-China ties that began in the mid-fifties when the then UNP government signed the China-Ceylon Rubber Rice Pact that lasted till the late 1970s despite opposition from some countries which considered ‘Red China’ being untouchable.

Amidst the raging confusion political leaders, some academics, intellectuals in late-night TV shows debate on the probability of local government elections being held; resolution of foreign debt problems which they appear to have no solution and other issues mentioned above ignoring any existence of the force that drove out the Rajapaksa government and its president just six months ago.

Do they consider the Aragalaya a spent force like the JVP by the United Front government of the seventies after its first insurrection fizzled out? The JVP did not disappear. It staged the second insurrection and is now quite a formidable mainstream political party. The Aragalaya has not organised itself into a political party, the hardcore being put behind bars on flimsy charges amounting to terrorism. It may be that if the said elections are held they would impact with a clout demonstrating their power on deciding the elections.

What’s President Ranil Wickremesinghe’s political strategy? It could be that of the Chinese general Sun Tzu who successfully served Ho Lu King of Wu about 2500 years ago. He wrote a book The Art of War which the King of WU read and recruited Sun Tzu as his general who defeated all enemies of the king. Even though the book is about the conduct of war it is now considered essential reading for politicians, directors of corporations and those involved in taking key decisions.

A basic principle stressed by Sun Tzu is: Supreme excellence consists of breaking the enemy’s resistance without fighting.

Wickremesinghe does not go to fight his enemies in an election. He cancels the election and remains the president uncontested! Is this in accordance with the Chinese general’s advice?