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Ranil confident yet there is many a slip between cup and lip

(Neville de Silva is a veteran Sri Lankan journalist who was Assistant Editor of the Hong Kong Standard and worked for Gemini News Service in London. Later he was Deputy Chief-of-Mission in Bangkok and Deputy High Commissioner in London.)

It seemed like a day for true confessions. Briefing the media after last week’s cabinet meeting spokesman and minister Bandula Gunawardena admitted that Sri Lanka has been cheating the IMF over the years. Not twice, not five times, not even ten times. It was sixteen times.

“We have cheated the IMF 16 times before this by not acting in accordance with the conditions we agreed upon”, he told the media proving--if proof was necessary--what the media has been saying for years. Governments, by and large, and some ministers lie through their teeth.

Whether he struck a note of contrition as he confessed to mass cheating, we are not told. But saying sorry is not something that spills out of the mouths of governments of whatever political hue they may be, not often anyway.

Having pocketed the first instalment of some $330 million of the loan which those who dabble in these things call a tranche, which seemed to have arrived post-haste so that President Wickremesinghe could produce a few dollars more out of his pocket in a Houdini act if sceptics needed proof of delivery. Minister Gunawardena promised the Sri Lanka government would behave this time round.

“If that happens again this time, the country will fall into a bigger abyss”, quoth he (if the archaic might be permitted), not daring to say that maybe they will take these Washington-based Shylocks for a ride one more time, even if they have to wait till dear Diana’s dream of a “Disney Land” in distant Hambantota comes true.

Not just that. Minister Gunawardena said all facts relating to the IMF Extended Fund Facility (EFF) will “not be hidden from the public” and promised, as it were, that a transparent procedure will be followed, reminding us also that President Wickremesinghe had assured when the agreement was signed all matters relating to it will be placed before parliament.

In fact, Ranil Wickremesinghe did just that. With an air of confidence not always seen in these vexing times he made quite a detailed statement, how like Horatius he stepped forward to rescue the country when it was falling to pieces and nobody was ready to accept the challenge to save it for the generations to come.

And there was much table-thumping from behind him from a government Pohottuwa party which had resolutely decided to reject IMF assistance and follow Central Bank Governor Nivard Cabraal, Pied Piper-like, on his domestic road to salvation. Just as Minister Gunawardena promised, President Wickremesinghe tabled the agreement with the IMF and two or three other documents which would tell the tale of what lies ahead in this arduous rescue mission.

With the first IMF tranche safely in his pocket, so to say, and lenders’ doors open for more loans which the government must seek to get over the coming months and years, President Wickremesinghe sounded more positive now that the lifeline had been thrown to him to grab.

What the ranks of Tuscany would have done one cannot be sure, for this was only a lifeline and the other end of it is still in the hands of one of the “Washington Twins”.

But out there in the country noise of bursting firecrackers seemed like everything was done and dusted. Bottoms of the barrels had been scraped to cook the traditional kiributh--a spontaneous gesture of victory or egged on by UNP-SLPP stalwarts on instructions sent to their supporters in local councils who have been given another lease of life with no elections in sight. Or so it was suggested by one opposition speaker in parliament.

Inside the House, despite the tablethumping another issue had arisen. It concerned Bandula Gunawardena’s promised public display of all documents as a sign of the government’s good intentions.

But hold on a second. What happened to the Letter of Intent that would have set out what has been agreed on and what is to be in the months ahead.

Speaking during the debate on the IMF agreement, the opposition Samagi Jana Balawegaya’s main economic affairs spokesman Dr Harsha de Silva claimed that while the president had tabled some documents connected with the IMF deal, he appeared to have held back the Letter of Intent signed by the Finance Minister and the Governor of the Central Bank which he called the “most important document”.

Without that document, he said, it was absurd debating the IMF agreement.

Still, this is not all that is troubling. While the IMF advocates transparency in some of the reforms that it is proposing, the IMF itself is not all that transparent in its own actions as critics have often argued. The fact is that the IMF does not operate alone.

Nobel Prize Laureate Prof Joseph Stiglitz has criticised the more monetarist approach of the IMF in recent years. Failing to take the best policies to improve the welfare of developing countries, Prof Stiglitz said “the IMF was not participating in a conspiracy but it was reflecting the interests and ideology of the western financial community.” And who would that be pray?

Some of the IMF’s conditions such as the anti-corruption law which the president said would be the best in south Asia, are to be lauded. But legislation alone will not be sufficient. What is needed is the political will and the official determination to bring the corrupt to book through clean, independent and untainted investigations.

Why bribery and corruption still thrive in the country is because political and other influences have been brought to bear on forthright investigations into bribery and corruption, as has been seen over the years.

But there is another aspect to the IMF assistance to help Sri Lanka out of the morass into which successive governments and their disastrous policy decisions have pushed it.

It is the country’s geopolitical importance at a time when the IndoPacific region, especially the eastern/central Indian Ocean is increasingly turning into an area of big power contestation.

Space limitations do not permit a detailed discussion of this aspect of the issue. But suffice it to say it is imperative for the western powers and others such as Japan and India not to let this island flounder in political instability and social unrest.

It needs to be politically steadied and a healthy economy built in the medium and long term to wean it away from China’s influence and its large footprint here. The frequent visits of high-powered US officials and last month’s secretive visit to Colombo of a big US defence delegation led by a senior official for IndoPacific Security Affairs is not without purpose, especially if it included the head of the CIA, as the Indian media pointed out and has also been raised in the Sri Lanka parliament.

It is in the interest of the US and other pro-western powers to ensure that this geopolitically strategic island is stable and not increasingly beholden to China. It is in their interest to strengthen President Wickremesinghe’s hand for they see him as a leader with a pro-western outlook and propensities, they can deal with. President Wickremesinghe said the other day that he will lead the country like his alma mater’s cricket captain who brought victory this month despite a poor record during the season. If so well and good.

But he might also recall that a century or more ago his old school, then called “The Academy” was led by a captain who led his team into the central hills and did not turn up to complete the game after the team was dismissed for a paltry nine runs.

He would not do that surely, not after he worked hard over the IMF deal that now needs careful manoeuvring.

Why bribery and corruption still thrive in the country is because political and other influences have been brought to bear on forthright investigations into bribery and corruption, as has been seen over the years

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2023-03-26T07:00:00.0000000Z

2023-03-26T07:00:00.0000000Z

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